• Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
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Sun, Apr 16, 2017 at 6:27 AM
Issued by: Ian Hoyer

Today

 

Tomorrow

Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
  Danger Scale

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Summary

Today’s weather looks to be almost a carbon copy of yesterday’s and this means that our avalanche conditions will stay the same as well. Temperatures dropped below freezing last night and will rise into the low 40s by this afternoon. Small, Loose Wet avalanches are the only concern, as the snow surface melts. This problem can be avoided by staying ahead of the sun. Start early in the day on east facing aspects and move west as the sun tracks across the sky. If you see small wet avalanches, roller balls, or pinwheels it is time to move to a cooler aspect. 

Thanks for another great season! We really appreciate the continued support of everyone who uses and contributes to our products. Thank you!  

This is our 144th and final zone backcountry avalanche forecast for the 2016-17 season. Starting this afternoon, we will issue statewide avalanche summaries each Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday through the end of May.

We have made impressive strides in our mission of avalanche forecasting and education here in Colorado. Help us continue that trend and donate to the Friends of CAIC fundraising campaign. https://avalanche.state.co.us/donate/.

 

Recent Tweets

@CAIC: LOW (L1) Solid freeze last night- stay ahead of the sun today. Thanks for all the obs and support this winter! Apr 16, 7:01 AM
@CAIC: LOW(L1) Start early and end early. Rollerballs and pinwheels are signs that slope has become too warm. Apr 15, 6:35 AM

Avalanche Problem

 
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N
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NE
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SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
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Historic
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Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Loose Wet avalanches occur when water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Loose Wet avalanches occur when water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Weather Forecast for 11,000ft Issued Wed, Apr 26, 2017 at 1:00 PM by Nick Barlow Statewide Weather Forecast
  Sunday Night Monday Monday Night
Temperature (ºF) 21 to 26 25 to 30 10 to 15
Wind Speed (mph) 5 to 15 10 to 20 5 to 15
Wind Direction W W W
Sky Cover Overcast Overcast Overcast
Snow (in) 3 to 5 3 to 5 0 to 2

Archived Forecasts

  • Select Forecast: Valid

Sun, Apr 16, 2017 at 6:56 AM
Issued by: Ian Hoyer Statewide Weather Forecast  

The springtime melt-freeze cycle continues today. The snowpack was locked up tight by last nights freeze. Riding conditions will initially be poor and avalanche concerns exceedingly minor this morning. As the snow surface softens, the riding conditions will improve. As melt penetrates more than a couples inches, riding conditions will deteriorate, and Loose Wet avalanches will become a concern. This will happen earliest on east facing slopes and later on west facing slopes (but may progress further). Any avalanches today should be small, but could still cause you trouble in just the wrong piece of terrain. Pay close attention to the extent of melt and be ready to move onto shadier or lower angled slopes.

Today marks the end of the 2016-2017 backcountry zone forecast season.  I want to especially thank all of you who submitted observations this year. Your observations are hugely appreciated and are a critical part of the forecasting progress. I hope you've had a great season so far, and continue to have a fun, safe spring.

Starting this afternoon, we will issue statewide avalanche summaries each Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday through the end of May. Zone weather forecasts will be issued twice daily until the end of April. 


  • Wet loose avalanche starting from rocks, 4/1/17 (full)

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Five Day Trend

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Today

Tomorrow

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Avalanche Observations
No relevant backcountry observations found for this forecast

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Field Reports
Report Date Observer Snowpack Obs Avalanches Media

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Weather Observations
Station Date Time Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Wind Direction Max Gust 24 Hr Snow
Butte Wed Apr 26 2:00 PM 35 - - - - 3.0
Elkton Wed Apr 26 2:00 PM 28 96 5 207 16 -
Park Cone Wed Apr 26 2:00 PM 40 - - - - 1.0
Taylor Park Wed Apr 26 2:57 PM 37 44 9 255 20 -

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