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  Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Aspen
Issued: 02/11/2012 6:27 AM by Scott Toepfer
Avalanche Watch in Effect through 02/12/2012 10:00 AM

An Avalanche Watch is being issued for the following zones:
Aspen
Gunnison
North San Juan
South San Juan
A potentially strong storm will dig into the Great Basin tonight and the potential for periods of heavy snow and moderate winds develop early Sunday morning and continue into Monday morning. The four zones in the watch area have a weak underlying snowpack and if  new snowfall amounts verify a natural avalanche cycle is expected by Sunday afternoon. Some of these avalanches could be large and potentially dangerous. Backcountry travelers should expect an increasing avalanche danger Sunday.
We will evaluate the storm again early Sunday morning and an Avalanche Warning may be issued by 6 am if the storm continues to develop as forecast.

Twitter 3:38 PM by Scott Toepfer:  Avalanche Watch issued for Aspen, Gunnison, North San Juan and South San Juan zones this afternoon.
Highlights

Much of the Aspen zone missed out on any new snowfall in the last 24 hours, but the Schofield Pass/Marble area picked up 2 inches or so.  The storm behaved more or less as forecast with the better snowfall along and north of I-70. Storm totals over the last couple days are 6 to 14 inches of snow accumulation. West to northwest winds are drifting the snow onto easterly aspects and building small soft wind slabs near and above treeline. Triggering a small slide in the storm snow is likely today on lee aspects steeper than 35 degrees. Triggering a larger persistent slab is possible on steeper slopes near treeline.

<p>Much of the Aspen zone missed out on any new snowfall in the last 24 hours, but the Schofield Pass/Marble area picked up 2 inches or so.&nbsp; The storm behaved more or less as forecast with the better snowfall along and north of I-70. Storm totals over the last couple days are 6 to 14 inches of snow accumulation. West to northwest winds are drifting the snow onto easterly aspects and building small soft wind slabs near and above treeline. Triggering a small slide in the storm snow is likely today on lee aspects steeper than 35 degrees. Triggering a larger persistent slab is possible on steeper slopes near treeline.</p>  
Avalanche Danger

The avalanche danger for the Aspen zone is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on near and above treeline slopes facing N-NE-E-SE. Small avalanches in the storm snow are likely. Watch for new soft slabs on north through east through southeast aspects. Triggered deep slab avalanches are still possible at these higher elevations as well, especially on slopes facing northwest through east.  The danger is MODERATE on all other slopes. Be aware that triggered avalanches are still possible with a MODERATE (Level 2) rating. Given the poor snowpack structure and the definition of MODERATE danger, triggered avalanches could be large in some areas.

<p>The avalanche danger for the Aspen zone is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on near and above treeline slopes facing N-NE-E-SE. Small avalanches in the storm snow are likely. Watch for new soft slabs on north through east through southeast aspects. Triggered deep slab avalanches are still possible at these higher elevations as well, especially on slopes facing northwest through east.&nbsp; The danger is MODERATE on all other slopes. Be aware that triggered avalanches are still possible with a MODERATE (Level 2) rating. Given the poor snowpack structure and the definition of <a href="http://avalanche.state.co.us/pub/fx_danger_scale.php">MODERATE danger</a>, triggered avalanches could be large in some areas.</p>
5 Day Danger Rose Trend:  Aspen
Missing Rose
Feb 6, 2012
Missing Rose
Feb 7, 2012
Missing Rose
Feb 8, 2012
Missing Rose
Feb 9, 2012
Missing Rose
Feb 10, 2012
Current Danger Rose
Aspen
Missing Rose
Feb 11, 2012
Snow & Avalanche Discussion

Much of the Aspen zone missed out on any new snowfall in the last 24 hours, but the Schofield Pass/Marble area picked up 2 to 3 inches or so.  This pushed storm totals over the last couple days to 7to 14 inches of total snow accumulation. West to northwest winds have built small fresh wind slabs around a foot thick on easterly aspects. In more sheltered terrain, you can expect the new storm snow to run in loose sluffs. Avalanches in the storm snow will be small, but they will be easy to trigger on slopes steeper than 35 degrees today.

Other than the new soft slabs, avalanche danger is slowly decreasing in the backcountry, but we still have a snowpack with very dangerous strong over weak layering on many slopes.  Layers in the middle and  upper snowpack are stiffening and gaining strength, and reactive surface hoar can be found in the upper meter of the snowpack. This strengthening upper layer gives the snowpack a deceptively strong feel as you travel through the backcountry, especially in the southwestern portion of the Aspen zone where recent storm snow totals were deeper. The underlying snow, however, is quite weak. Triggering a persistent slab is possible on most aspects on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. The likelihood of triggering one of the slabs is gradually easing over time, but should one release, it could large and destructive. A small release in the storm snow has the potential to step down and trigger these deeper layers.

<p>Much of the Aspen zone missed out on any new snowfall in the last 24 hours, but the Schofield Pass/Marble area picked up 2 to 3 inches or so.&nbsp; This pushed storm totals over the last couple days to 7to 14 inches of total snow accumulation. West to northwest winds have built small fresh wind slabs around a foot thick on easterly aspects. In more sheltered terrain, you can expect the new storm snow to run in loose sluffs. Avalanches in the storm snow will be small, but they will be easy to trigger on slopes steeper than 35 degrees today. <br /><br />Other than the new soft slabs, avalanche danger is slowly decreasing in the backcountry, but we still have a snowpack with very dangerous strong over weak layering on many slopes.&nbsp; Layers in the middle and&nbsp; upper snowpack are stiffening and gaining strength, and <a href="http://avalanche.state.co.us/fx/">reactive surface hoar </a>can be found in the upper meter of the snowpack. This strengthening upper layer gives the snowpack a deceptively strong feel as you travel through the backcountry, especially in the southwestern portion of the Aspen zone where recent storm snow totals were deeper. The underlying snow, however, is quite weak. Triggering a persistent slab is possible on most aspects on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. The likelihood of triggering one of the slabs is gradually easing over time, but should one release, it could large and destructive. A small release in the storm snow has the potential to step down and trigger these deeper layers.</p>
Weather Discussion for 11,000ft Issued: 02/11/2012 11:57 AM by Scott Toepfer

The weather pattern has become quite progressive the last few days. Models are showing a progression of low pressure troughs across the west for the next several days. A high pressure ridge will kick out of Colorado Sunday morning followed by our next system, a quick moving open wave trough, which drops into the Great Basin tonight. This should bring a few showers before sunrise to the southern mountains and spread into the central zones during the day Sunday. At this time models are hinting at a dry slot over the San Juan mid-morning before ramping-up again Sunday afternoon.
By sunrise Monday this trough is over the Texas Panhandle and a weak high pressure ridge moves over us during the day. We have a closed low moving into the Great Basin on Tuesday which would be our next storm. This looks to again first impact the San Juan.

I will issue an avalanche watch a little later this afternoon for the North and South San Juan plus the Aspen and Gunnison zones.

<p>The weather pattern has become quite progressive the last few days. Models are showing a progression of low pressure troughs across the west for the next several days. A high pressure ridge will kick out of Colorado Sunday morning followed by our next system, a quick moving open wave trough, which drops into the Great Basin tonight. This should bring a few showers before sunrise to the southern mountains and spread into the central zones during the day Sunday. At this time models are hinting at a dry slot over the San Juan mid-morning before ramping-up again Sunday afternoon. <br />By sunrise Monday this trough is over the Texas Panhandle and a weak high pressure ridge moves over us during the day. We have a closed low moving into the Great Basin on Tuesday which would be our next storm. This looks to again first impact the San Juan.<br /><br />I will issue an avalanche watch a little later this afternoon for the North and South San Juan plus the Aspen and Gunnison zones.</p>
Weather Forecast
Fields Saturday Night Sunday Sunday Night
Temperature (°F) 12 to 17 10 to 15 8 to 13
Wind Speed (mph) 5 to 15 13 to 23 12 to 22
Wind Direction SW SW->SSW W
Sky Cover IncreasingIN OvercastOV OvercastOV
Snow (in) 0 to 2 5-9W 3-5E 4-8W 3-5E

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Link to this forecast:   http://avalanche.state.co.us/pub_bc_avo.php?zone_id=4&arc_sel_bc_avo=7944&display=printerfriendly

 
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