CAIC: Colorado Avalanche Information Center   Backcountry Forecasts  >  Northern San Juan
CGS: Colorado Geological Survey
  Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Northern San Juan Printer Friendly
Issued 11/20/2009 7:02 AM by Ann Mellick
Highlights

Welcome to the 2009-2010 season! Today is November 20th and we are starting daily backcountry forecasts. There's still not much snow out there, but there are recreation opportunities if you choose carefully. We have some changes to our website and there will be a few more appearing over the next few weeks.

You can find weather forecasts in the morning and afternoon here.

Avalanche forecasts will come out each morning. As new information comes in we'll update them during the day and on Twitter. Find out how to follow the tweets here.

You can find avalanche classes, CAIC events, and Friends of the CAIC events on our Calendar. Many of the schools are still filling in their winter schedules so look for more information next week.

<p>Welcome to the 2009-2010 season! Today is November 20th and we are starting daily backcountry forecasts. There's still not much snow out there, but there are recreation opportunities if you choose carefully. We have some changes to our website and there will be a few more appearing over the next few weeks.</p> <p>You can find weather forecasts in the morning and afternoon <a href="../pub_bc_wx.php">here</a>.</p> <p>Avalanche forecasts will come out each morning. As new information comes in we'll update them during the day and on Twitter. Find out how to follow the tweets <a href="../pub/follow.php">here</a>.</p> <p>You can find avalanche classes, CAIC events, and Friends of the CAIC events on our <a href="../pub/all_cals.php">Calendar</a>. Many of the schools are still filling in their winter schedules so look for more information next week.</p>  
Avalanche Danger

The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is MODERATE on W, NW, N, NE, E aspects near and above treeline and generally LOW elsewhere.

If you have been in the backountry, please send us an observation and let us know what you saw.

<p>The avalanche danger for the Northern San Juan zone is MODERATE on W, NW, N, NE, E aspects near and above treeline and generally LOW elsewhere.</p> <p>If you have been in the backountry, <a title="Observation form" href="../pub/contact.php?subject=Backcountry+Observation" target="_blank">please send us an observation and let us know what you saw.<br /></a></p>
Avalanche Danger Scale
Snow & Avalanche Discussion

Last weekend’s storm snow (15”- 21”) fell on a patchwork of snow left from early season storms. Warm and dry weather prior to the storm melted the snow on southerly slopes and at lower elevations, but snow persisted on cooler slopes. This means that our most recent snow fell on old, mostly faceted snow on shady slopes and bare ground on sunny ones.

More than a dozen slides ran during or shortly after the last storm. These slides mostly occurred on northerly aspects near and above treeline, and ran on either basal facets or facets near a dust layer deposited in late October.

Overall, the snowpack on northerly slopes is weak though lacks a real slab in many places- it is mostly made up of facets! However, some hollow windslabs can be found in open areas. These may be reactive to the weight of a backcountry traveler, so poke around as much as possible to try to get a feel for their depth and distribution. Southerly slopes are crusty and thin or melting out to bare ground again. East and west facing slopes have a mixed bag of facets and crusts, depending on elevation and how much sun they receive.

Use caution if you choose to travel in the backcountry today. Lots early season obstacles exist just below the thin veneer of snow.  Rocks, downed logs and old mining debris could do serious bodily damage should you have a run-in.

<p>Last weekend&rsquo;s storm snow (15&rdquo;- 21&rdquo;) fell on a patchwork of snow left from early season storms. Warm and dry weather prior to the storm melted the snow on southerly slopes and at lower elevations, but snow persisted on cooler slopes. This means that our most recent snow fell on old, mostly faceted snow on shady slopes and bare ground on sunny ones. <br /><br />More than a dozen slides ran during or shortly after the last storm. These slides mostly occurred on northerly aspects near and above treeline, and ran on either basal facets or facets near a dust layer deposited in late October. <br /><br />Overall, the snowpack on northerly slopes is weak though lacks a real slab in many places- it is mostly made up of facets! However, some hollow windslabs can be found in open areas. These may be reactive to the weight of a backcountry traveler, so poke around as much as possible to try to get a feel for their depth and distribution. Southerly slopes are crusty and thin or melting out to bare ground again. East and west facing slopes have a mixed bag of facets and crusts, depending on elevation and how much sun they receive. <br /><br />Use caution if you choose to travel in the backcountry today. Lots early season obstacles exist just below the thin veneer of snow.&nbsp; Rocks, downed logs and old mining debris could do serious bodily damage should you have a run-in.</p>
Weather Discussion

Beautiful fall weather continues as a ridge of high pressure builds over Colorado.Today expect clear skies and light winds from the west and southwest. The next low-pressure system is brewing in the Pacific Northwest. Overnight winds speeds over the highest terrain will increase into the 20 to 30 mph range and clouds will start to build in the Northern Mountains. The low-pressure trough will pass through Colorado on Saturday. Clouds will spread into the Central Mountains with scattered snow showers in the Northern Mountains.There is a slight break before a second low-pressure system moves in on Sunday. This is a slightly stronger system, but most of the weather will remain in the northern half of the state.

<p>Beautiful fall weather continues as a ridge of high pressure builds over Colorado.Today expect clear skies and light winds from the west and southwest. The next low-pressure system is brewing in the Pacific Northwest. Overnight winds speeds over the highest terrain will increase into the 20 to 30 mph range and clouds will start to build in the Northern Mountains. The low-pressure trough will pass through Colorado on Saturday. Clouds will spread into the Central Mountains with scattered snow showers in the Northern Mountains.There is a slight break before a second low-pressure system moves in on Sunday. This is a slightly stronger system, but most of the weather will remain in the northern half of the state.</p>
Weather Forecast
Fields Friday Friday Night Saturday
Temperature (°F) 30 to 35 15 to 20 30 to 35
Wind Speed (mph) 5 to 15 5 to 15 5 to 15
Wind Direction SW SW SW
Sky Cover Clear CL Mostly Clear CM Mostly Clear CM
Snow (in) 0 0 0

Moderate Normal Caution
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