CAIC: Colorado Avalanche Information Center   Backcountry Forecasts  >  Northern San Juan
CGS: Colorado Geological Survey
  Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Northern San Juan Printer Friendly
Issued 02/08/2010 7:06 AM by Ethan Greene
Highlights

Storm totals in the Northern San Juan varied widely. Overnight northeasterly flow produced some heavy precipitation on the north side of the range. Storm totals were 4-6" in the Telluride area and on top of Red Mountain Pass, about 9" on Coal Bank and Molas Passes, and about 10" in the Ophir valley. During the event the winds were generally light, but came from many different directions. Winds were from the southwest early in the storm, but moved around to the southeast, east, northeast and eventually north. Good thing they weren't too strong.

Today you will find some sensitive soft slabs in near and above treeline areas. Sun today could also create some natural avalanche activity.

<p>Storm totals in the Northern San Juan varied widely. Overnight northeasterly flow produced some heavy precipitation on the north side of the range. Storm totals were 4-6" in the Telluride area and on top of Red Mountain Pass, about 9" on Coal Bank and Molas Passes, and about 10" in the Ophir valley. During the event the winds were generally light, but came from many different directions. Winds were from the southwest early in the storm, but moved around to the southeast, east, northeast and eventually north. Good thing they weren't too strong.</p> <p>Today you will find some sensitive soft slabs in near and above treeline areas. Sun today could also create some natural avalanche activity.</p> Considerable avalanche danger. Light winds and new snow in the 4 to 10" range. Check http://tinyurl.com/CAICzone7 for more.
Avalanche Danger

The avalanche danger for Northern San Juan is CONSIDERABLE in near and above treeline areas. Below treeline the avalanche danger is MODERATE.

<p>The avalanche danger for Northern San Juan is CONSIDERABLE in near and above treeline areas. Below treeline the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p> <p><input id="gwProxy" type="hidden" /><!--Session data--><input id="jsProxy" onclick="jsCall();" type="hidden" /></p> <p><input id="gwProxy" type="hidden" /><!--Session data--><input id="jsProxy" onclick="jsCall();" type="hidden" /></p>
Avalanche Danger Scale
Snow & Avalanche Discussion

Before the last storm the number of deep slab avalanches was decreasing, but snow near the surface continued to weaken. Layers of near-surface facets grew on shady aspects, and a mix of crusts and facets developed on sun-exposed slopes. These weak surface layers are now buried under a layer of new snow and will create some sensitive conditions today. The wind direction was a bit confusing during the storm as it swept through three compass quadrants. Fortunately the winds were generally light, so fresh drifts should still be fairly soft. 

Today winter travelers could trigger soft slab avalanches on most aspects that are near or above treeline. Use caution on any steep slope that has a fresh deposit of wind drifted snow more than about a foot deep. The clouds will be breaking today and direct sunshine will increase the sensitivity of the new snow layer and could produce some natural avalanche activity.

Although the danger of avalanches that break into old snow layers is decreasing, it has not vanished. Deep slab avalanches are still possible and the most recent activity occurred on northerly, above-treeline slopes. It is getting harder to trigger this type of avalanche, but the consequences of riding a deep slab remain severe. Manage the terrain and limit your exposure. Avoid steep rollovers and convex slopes. Remember to travel one at a time through avalanche terrain.

<p>Before the last storm the number of deep slab avalanches was decreasing, but snow near the surface continued to weaken. Layers of near-surface facets grew on shady aspects, and a mix of crusts and facets developed on sun-exposed slopes. These weak surface layers are now buried under a layer of new snow and will create some sensitive conditions today. The wind direction was a bit confusing during the storm as it swept through three compass quadrants. Fortunately the winds were generally light, so fresh drifts should still be fairly soft.&nbsp;</p> <p>Today winter travelers could trigger soft slab avalanches on most aspects that are near or above treeline. Use caution on any steep slope that has a fresh deposit of wind drifted snow more than about a foot deep. The clouds will be breaking today and direct sunshine will increase the sensitivity of the new snow layer and could produce some natural avalanche activity.</p> <p>Although the danger of avalanches that break into old snow layers is decreasing, it has not vanished. Deep slab avalanches are still possible and the most recent activity occurred on northerly, above-treeline slopes. It is getting harder to trigger this type of avalanche, but the consequences of riding a deep slab remain severe. Manage the terrain and limit your exposure. Avoid steep rollovers and convex slopes. Remember to travel one at a time through avalanche terrain.</p>
Weather Discussion

Colorado is sandwiched between a long-wave trough descending into the mid-west from Canada and a jet streak that is working its way through northern Mexico. Today the weak low-pressure system that brought us light winds and snow over the last 36 hours will move off to the east and merge with the northern trough. The flow will remain light in most areas and turn to the north and northwest in the Northern and Central Mountains and to the southwest in the Southern Mountains. Cold air will move into the Front Range, but probably won't make it into the Steamboat or Vail/Summit zones. The atmosphere over Colorado will slowly dry out over the next two days. Cloud cover will slowly decrease though the day and snow showers will linger longest in Sangre de Cristo and Front Range zones. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over Colorado on Tuesday but will quickly be replaced by an advancing low-pressure trough towards the end of the week.

<p>Colorado is sandwiched between a long-wave trough descending into the mid-west from Canada and a jet streak that is working its way through northern Mexico. Today the weak low-pressure system that brought us light winds and snow over the last 36 hours will move off to the east and merge with the northern trough. The flow will remain light in most areas and turn to the north and northwest in the Northern and Central Mountains and to the southwest in the Southern Mountains. Cold air will move into the Front Range, but probably won't make it into the Steamboat or Vail/Summit zones. The atmosphere over Colorado will slowly dry out over the next two days. Cloud cover will slowly decrease though the day and snow showers will linger longest in Sangre de Cristo and Front Range zones. A weak ridge of high pressure will build over Colorado on Tuesday but will quickly be replaced by an advancing low-pressure trough towards the end of the week.</p>
Weather Forecast
Fields Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Temperature (°F) 18 to 23 5 to 10 20 to 25
Wind Speed (mph) 5 to 15 5 to 15 5 to 15
Wind Direction NW WSW SW
Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy MC Partly Cloudy PC Partly Cloudy PC
Snow (in) 0 to 2 0 to 1 0
Considerable Storm Snow
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