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Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 6:58 AM
Issued by: Ben Pritchett

Monday

 

Tuesday

Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
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Summary

Expect generally safe avalanche conditions. There's an outside chance you can trigger a small sluff in steep northerly terrain where snow surfaces have grown weak and cohesionless. Careful of the consequences of getting pushed downslope into rocks or trees below.

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Please remember to recreate responsibly, including following state and local public health orders and social distancing recommendations.

 
Weather Forecast for 11,000ft Issued Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 5:08 AM by Ben Pritchett Statewide Weather Forecast
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Temperature (ºF) 23 to 28 9 to 14 13 to 18
Wind Speed (mph) 10 to 20 11 to 21 8 to 18
Wind Direction WSW WSW NW
Sky Cover Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy Overcast
Snow (in) 0 0 1 to 3

Archived Forecasts

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Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 7:37 AM
Issued by: Ben Pritchett Statewide Weather Forecast  

Avalanche activity has slowed over the last few days. The last reported avalanche in the Northern Mountains was four days ago. Calm clear weather has accelerated the faceting process and areas of stiff, slabby snow are growing weaker. In the short term, that softening of the snowpack makes it less likely to trigger slab avalanche. In the long run, well we're building future weak layers.

The only remaining places where you could trigger a small slab avalanche are those spots where the old slabs are thicker, stiffer, and more resistant to faceting. Looking at the varying snow depths across a given mountain, these places are easy to identify as the deeper, smoother spots. By avoiding these features below ridgelines and in upper-elevation gullies on north through northeast-facing terrain, you're greatly reducing your risk.

In some areas at lower elevations, where the snowpack was not affected by prior winds, the faceting process has begun to make the snow surface cohesionless. With little snow on the horizon, faceting will continue to weak the snowpack. Consider the potential for pushing small loose sluffs in very steep terrain near and below treeline, especially on valley walls in locations where cold air trapped is in the valley bottom. This is only a minor concern at the moment, but worth paying attention to where you find cohesionless snow surfaces.


  • A look at the snowpack on an east-facing and north-facing slope. The snowpack is very different depending on aspect. Right now the most likely place to trigger an avalanche is on a northerly slope with wind-drifted snow.

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Five Day Trend

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Avalanche Observations
No relevant backcountry observations found for this forecast

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Field Reports
Report Date Observer Snowpack Obs Avalanches Media

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Weather Observations
Station Date Time Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Wind Direction Max Gust 24 Hr Snow
Steamboat Lake State Park Mon Nov 30 9:00 AM 2 91 0 220 4 0.8
Storm Peak Observatory Mon Nov 30 8:30 AM 17 39 15 248 18 -

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