• Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
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Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 6:50 AM
Issued by: Ben Pritchett

Monday

 

Tuesday

Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
  Danger Scale

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Summary

Generally safe avalanche conditions. There's still an outside chance you could trigger a small avalanche in just the wrong spot. These isolated spots are easy to locate: look for north to northeasterly-facing features below ridgelines and in gullies where the snowpack appears deeper and smoother. Careful where you find these pockets of previously wind-drifted snow resting on weak snow near the ground. The snowpack will feel hollow and supportive. Consider the consequences of where a small avalanche might take you. Look for safer alternatives on nearby slopes with less consequences or slope angles less than about 35 degrees.

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Please remember to recreate responsibly, including following state and local public health orders and social distancing recommendations

 

Avalanche Problem

 
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N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
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Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Wind Slab avalanches release naturally during wind events and can be triggered for up to a week after a wind event. They form in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid them by sticking to wind sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Weather Forecast for 11,000ft Issued Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 5:08 AM by Ben Pritchett Statewide Weather Forecast
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Temperature (ºF) 24 to 29 3 to 8 10 to 15
Wind Speed (mph) 13 to 23 18 to 28 5 to 15
Wind Direction W W NW
Sky Cover Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy Overcast
Snow (in) 0 0 1 to 3

Archived Forecasts

  • Select Forecast: Valid

Sun, Nov 29, 2020 at 7:11 AM
Issued by: Kreston Rohrig Statewide Weather Forecast  

There have been multiple human triggered avalanches over the past few days, which link directly to the current avalanche problems. Two of the recent avalanches (Berthoud Pass and Montezuma) were freshly formed wind slabs, possibly failing on buried near-surface facets. The other slides on Vail Pass and near the Tunnels failed to the ground (Persistent Slab) on weak snow from October. With a relatively shallow early season's snowpack, it may be easy to affect these layers and create a failure. The best way to ensure your safety is to avoid traveling on steep wind-loaded slopes altogether.

This can be tricky, as slopes facing north to east hold the most snow and the most risk. Look for smooth, rounded drifts below ridges or the backsides of large terrain features as hazards to avoid. With a thin snow cover in most areas, taking any ride in any size avalanche could have severe consequences as you get bashed off the exposed rocks below.


  • Quick snowpack structure from South Diamond Peak, top of Ptarmigan path, ~11,500', NNE, 20201127. Snow depth was variable high in path, from 20cm to 100cm, this pit was at 77cm HS. (full)
  • ECT Test results, South Diamond Peak, top of Ptarmigan path, 20201127, 11,500', NNE. with super cool slo mo at last tap :) Hope it works!

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Five Day Trend

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  • No Rating
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    Low
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    Moderate
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    Considerable
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    High
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    Extreme
Avalanche Observations
No relevant backcountry observations found for this forecast

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Field Reports
Report Date Observer Snowpack Obs Avalanches Media
View Fri Nov 27 Lucas Mouttet No No Yes (2)
View Fri Nov 27 - No No No

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Weather Observations
Station Date Time Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Wind Direction Max Gust 24 Hr Snow
Bottle Peak Mon Nov 30 9:00 AM 23 16 5 280 6 -
Berthoud Pass Mon Nov 30 9:00 AM 19 14 8 341 14 -
Loveland Pass Mon Nov 30 9:00 AM 20 11 12 244 19 -

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