• Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
  • Forecast Discussion
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Wed, May 1, 2019 at 6:31 AM
Issued by: Jason Konigsberg

Today

 

Tomorrow

Moderate (2) Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.   Moderate (2) Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Moderate (2) Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.   Considerable (3) Dangerous avalanche conditions. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
Moderate (2) Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.   Considerable (3) Dangerous avalanche conditions. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.
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Summary

Skiers triggered avalanches in wind-drifted snow near Janet's Cabin yesterday. Also, small wet avalanches were triggered below treeline just to the south of the zone. Both of these avalanche issues will be what you need to watch out for today. Wind-drifted slabs on north through easterly slopes near ridgetop and wet avalanche on all aspects in areas out of the wind and below treeline.

To identify where the wind has drifted harder slabs of snow, look for cracking in the snow surface and feel for generally upside down snow, where more dense slabby-feeling snow sits over softer snow. As for wet avalanches, if the air temperatures feels warm to you, the snow surface is probably feeling the effects as well. Snow that gets warm and wet will easily slide on buried crusts. Give the snow a push before committing to any slope to see if you get rollerballs, pinwheeling, and entrainment of the new snow in a loose avalanche.

As winds decrease over the next 24 to 48 hours, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche in wind-drifted snow will decrease. This will not be the case for wet avalanches. With up to 18 inches of new snow in the zone, the storm snow will quickly shed once heated by the sun. This could happen late this afternoon but most likely tomorrow will be the peak period for wet avalanches. 

This is our last zone forecast for the 2018-2019 season. We will continue to issue daily regional forecasts by 3 PM through May.

 

 

Avalanche Problem

 
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Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
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Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Wind Slab avalanches release naturally during wind events and can be triggered for up to a week after a wind event. They form in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid them by sticking to wind sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Avalanche Problem

 
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N
S
E
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NE
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Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
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Historic
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Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Loose Wet avalanches occur when water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Loose Wet avalanches occur when water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Weather Forecast for 11,000ft Issued Wed, May 1, 2019 at 4:01 AM by Brian Lazar Statewide Weather Forecast
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Temperature (ºF) 28 to 33 15 to 20 32 to 37
Wind Speed (mph) 10 to 20 5 to 15 8 to 18
Wind Direction W WSW WSW
Sky Cover Mostly Cloudy Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy
Snow (in) 1 to 3 0 0

Archived Forecasts

  • Select Forecast: Valid

Wed, May 1, 2019 at 6:43 AM
Issued by: Mike Cooperstein Statewide Weather Forecast  

The Northern Mountains saw a pretty nice dose of snow over the past few days, but avalanches were small and either isolated to recently wind drifted terrain bear ridgelines or were triggered in the wet gloppy snow at lower elevations. Most slopes are relatively safe today; however, you may be able to trigger small wind slabs at higher elevations that grow large enough to send you for a dangerous ride. This is particularly true if you are traveling in areas above rocks, cliffs, or trees where even a small avalanche can injure you. Use extra caution if you see drifts, new cornice formation, or cracking in the new or wind drifted snow. If you experience any of these red flags find a less steep place to ride and stay out of steep consequential terrain.

We will start to see the recent snow shed off of steep slopes as the day warms and the sun pops out through the clouds. You can trigger wet avalanches in surface snow that can tangle you up and send you for a dangerous ride in heavy wet gloppy snow. Wet avalanches may also run naturally from steep terrain below treeline. When the surface snow becomes wet and sticky the danger from these wet slides is increasing and you should look for a cooler aspect if you can find one or call it a day.

On Thursday and Friday, as the sun comes out and temperatures warm, we will likely see a cycle of natural loose wet avalanches. The new snow will not stick well to the layers below and you don't want to be under steep slopes when this cycle kicks off. Watch for changing conditions and an increasing danger particularly in near and below treeline areas over the next few days.  


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Avalanche Observations
Report Date # Elevation Aspect Type Trigger SizeR SizeD
View Thu May 23 - >TL E SS N R2 D1

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Field Reports
Report Date Observer Snowpack Obs Avalanches Media
View Sat May 25 Ellen Hollinshead No Yes (1) Yes (1)

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Weather Observations
Station Date Time Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Wind Direction Max Gust 24 Hr Snow
A-basin Sa-summit Sun May 26 9:00 PM 27 100 9 316 21 1.0
Hoosier Pass Sun May 26 7:00 PM - - 3 306 - 1.0

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