• Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
  • Forecast Discussion
  • Observations & Weather Data

Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 6:50 AM
Issued by: Ben Pritchett

Monday

 

Tuesday

Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
  Danger Scale

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Summary

Generally safe avalanche conditions. There's still an outside chance you could trigger a small avalanche in just the wrong spot. These isolated spots are easy to locate: look for north to northeasterly-facing features below ridgelines and in gullies where the snowpack appears deeper and smoother. Careful where you find these pockets of previously wind-drifted snow resting on weak snow near the ground. The snowpack will feel hollow and supportive. Consider the consequences of where a small avalanche might take you. Look for safer alternatives on nearby slopes with less consequences or slope angles less than about 35 degrees.

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Please remember to recreate responsibly, including following state and local public health orders and social distancing recommendations

 

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Wind Slab avalanches release naturally during wind events and can be triggered for up to a week after a wind event. They form in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid them by sticking to wind sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Weather Forecast for 11,000ft Issued Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 5:08 AM by Ben Pritchett Statewide Weather Forecast
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Temperature (ºF) 24 to 29 7 to 12 12 to 17
Wind Speed (mph) 8 to 18 10 to 20 10 to 20
Wind Direction W W NW
Sky Cover Mostly Clear Partly Cloudy Overcast
Snow (in) 0 0 0 to 2

Archived Forecasts

  • Select Forecast: Valid

Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 7:38 AM
Issued by: Ben Pritchett Statewide Weather Forecast  

Avalanche activity has slowed over the last few days. The last reported avalanche in the Northern Mountains was four days ago. Calm clear weather has accelerated the faceting process and areas of stiff, slabby snow are growing weaker. In the short term, that softening of the snowpack makes it less likely to trigger slab avalanche. In the long run, well we're building future weak layers.

The only remaining places where you could trigger a small slab avalanche are those spots where the old slabs are thicker, stiffer, and more resistant to faceting. Looking at the varying snow depths across a given mountain, these places are easy to identify as the deeper, smoother spots. By avoiding these features below ridgelines and in upper-elevation gullies on north through northeast-facing terrain, you're greatly reducing your risk.

In some areas at lower elevations, where the snowpack was not affected by prior winds, the faceting process has begun to make the snow surface cohesionless. With little snow on the horizon, faceting will continue to weak the snowpack. Consider the potential for pushing small loose sluffs in very steep terrain near and below treeline, especially on valley walls in locations where cold air trapped is in the valley bottom. This is only a minor concern at the moment, but worth paying attention to where you find cohesionless snow surfaces.


  • A look at the snowpack on an east-facing and north-facing slope. The snowpack is very different depending on aspect. Right now the most likely place to trigger an avalanche is on a northerly slope with wind-drifted snow.

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Five Day Trend

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  • No Rating
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    Low
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    Moderate
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    Considerable
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    High
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    Extreme
Avalanche Observations
No relevant backcountry observations found for this forecast

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Field Reports
Report Date Observer Snowpack Obs Avalanches Media
View Sun Nov 29 Michael Krieves No No Yes (1)
View Fri Nov 27 Kreston Rohrig No Yes (1) Yes (4)

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Weather Observations
Station Date Time Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Wind Direction Max Gust 24 Hr Snow
A-basin Sa-summit Mon Nov 30 9:00 AM 19 11 10 279 13 -
Vail Pass - Cdot Yard Mon Nov 30 9:00 AM 12 44 0 86 1 1.2

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