Today's storm shouldn't add enough load to change our current Persistent Slab avalanche problem. It's still lingering and still a major concern, but it will likely need more snow to start seeing naturals or a higher likelihood of triggering. However, smaller avalanches in the new snow will be on the rise. There is plenty of slick or weak old snow surfaces for the new snow to slide on out there that will become more problematic as storm totals stack up. West winds will aid in new slab formation at higher elevations, so use extra caution on any steep piece of terrain where you find more than 8 inches of snow.

Conditions are tricky. It's getting harder to trigger an avalanche that will bury you, but if you hit the wrong spot on the wrong slope, you can trigger a slide that breaks very wide and brings down the entire season's snowpack. There is no way to see these weak areas when you are standing at the top of a slope, ready to drop in, or at the bottom of a slope thinking about climbing it on your snowmobile. You will not see signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing. You may not see any recent avalanche activity. You may not get scary results in snowpack tests. The only way to avoid this type of avalanche is to stay off north, northeast, east, and southeast-facing slopes near and above treeline.

If you are traveling on north through east to southeast-facing slopes steeper than about 30 degrees, especially near and above treeline, you are rolling the dice. You may get lucky and avoid the weak spots, or you may get unlucky and trigger a monster avalanche. When conditions are like this, it doesn't matter how much you know about snow and avalanches or how many years you have spent in the backcountry. If you are recreating on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees, it's purely a game of chance.