• Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
  • Forecast Discussion
  • Observations & Weather Data

Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 6:52 AM
Issued by: Ben Pritchett

Monday

 

Tuesday

Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.   Low (1) Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
  Danger Scale

  • No Rating
  • 1
    Low
  • 2
    Moderate
  • 3
    Considerable
  • 4
    High
  • 5
    Extreme

Summary

Generally safe avalanche conditions. There's still an outside chance you could trigger a small avalanche in just the wrong spot. These isolated spots are easy to locate: look for north to northeasterly-facing features below ridgelines and in gullies where the snowpack appears deeper and smoother. Careful where you find these pockets of previously wind-drifted snow resting on weak snow near the ground. The snowpack will feel hollow and supportive. Consider the consequences of where a small avalanche might take you. Look for safer alternatives on nearby slopes with less consequences or slope angles less than about 35 degrees.

--------------------

Please remember to recreate responsibly, including following state and local public health orders and social distancing recommendations

 

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Wind Slab avalanches release naturally during wind events and can be triggered for up to a week after a wind event. They form in lee and cross-loaded terrain features. Avoid them by sticking to wind sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Avalanche Problem

 
problem icon
N
S
E
W
NW
NE
SE
SW
Above Treeline
Near Treeline
Below Treeline
Certain
Very Likely
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Historic
Very Large
Large
Small
Avalanche Character Aspect/Elevation Likelihood Size

What You Need to Know About These Avalanches


Loose Wet avalanches occur when water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Weather Forecast for 11,000ft Issued Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 5:08 AM by Ben Pritchett Statewide Weather Forecast
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Temperature (ºF) 20 to 25 7 to 12 15 to 20
Wind Speed (mph) 11 to 21 18 to 28 12 to 22
Wind Direction WSW W NW
Sky Cover Mostly Clear Mostly Clear Mostly Cloudy
Snow (in) 0 0 0 to 2

Archived Forecasts

  • Select Forecast: Valid

Mon, Nov 30, 2020 at 7:25 AM
Issued by: Brian Lazar Statewide Weather Forecast  

As the dry conditions persist, warm days and cold nights will continue to breakdown and weaken our mid-pack slab. This process will make it harder to find the isolated areas where you can trigger an avalanche.  

Continue to approach steep, wind-loaded areas with caution. Riders triggered small avalanches on northerly and east-facing slopes within the last week.  These avalanches look they broke on mid-pack facets that formed during a prolonged period of warm, dry weather in mid-November. 

It’s been almost two weeks since we received reports of avalanches breaking on weak basal facets at the ground. The problematic structure still exists, but pinning down the distribution is becoming more difficult. In parts of the forecast area where snow depths are generally around 3 feet deep, observers can find rounding basal facets. However, in areas with a shallower snowpack, the basal grains are slowly getting weaker. Portions of a slope with thin snow cover such as the backside of steep rollovers, the edges of a slab, or around rocky outcrops are the most likely spots to trigger a slide that breaks near the ground. 

Before committing to a slope, think about the consequences of being pushed around in a small avalanche. Could I be swept off a cliff or buried in a terrain trap, or washed through trees and shallowly buried obstacles? Small avalanches in the wrong terrain can ruin your day, your season, or worse.  

 

 


  • Texas Creek Nov 18, 2020 (full)
  • North Taylor Creek Nov 18, 2020 (full)
  • Avalanche can be seen just right of center in the upper part of the photo. From Below. NE, 12,500 ft, North San Juan. (full)
  • Interface of greatest concern shown with red line (below buried surface crust from last week's warm temps). NSJ Nov 25, 2020 (full)

See more photos & videos

Five Day Trend

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Today

Tomorrow

danger icon danger icon danger icon danger icon danger icon
danger icon danger icon danger icon danger icon danger icon
danger icon danger icon danger icon danger icon danger icon

  • No Rating
  • 1
    Low
  • 2
    Moderate
  • 3
    Considerable
  • 4
    High
  • 5
    Extreme
Avalanche Observations
No relevant backcountry observations found for this forecast

See All Avalanche Observations

Field Reports
Report Date Observer Snowpack Obs Avalanches Media

See All Field Reports

Weather Observations
Station Date Time Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Wind Direction Max Gust 24 Hr Snow
Hayden Pass Mon Nov 30 10:00 AM 21 - - - - 1.0

See All Weather Observations